Turkey’s banking sector is solid, but the country’s consumption-driven model no longer looks sustainable in the long term, the influential Wall Street Journal cited Istanbul-based economist Emre Alkin as saying.
Turkey has to “lower costs, produce more, import less and move up the value chain,” Alkin said, adding that the country needed a new growth model.
Turkey’s outstanding growth performance has not attracted the attention of foreign investors, WSJ said, labeling the phenomenon as a “Turkish paradox.”
Foreign investors preferred economies such as Poland, Germany and Russia – all of which grew healthily in the first quarter, if at less than half Turkey’s pace – and China, the newspaper said. Turkey attracted foreign direct investment valued at 1.3 percent of its gross domestic product last year, compared with 2.1 percent for Poland, 2.8 percent for Russia and 8.1 percent for China.
The Turkish economy grew by an impressive 8.9 percent last year. While the official forecast for 2011 is 4.5 percent, some governing party officials predict at least 7 percent growth.
How the new government will manage fiscal policy to control the current-account deficit is a key concern, according to the Financial Times.
“Attention is now turning to whether politicians – absorbed in a continuing crisis over opposition boycotts of the new Parliament – will support the Central Bank and help curb demand by tightening fiscal policy. Ministers have said little on options they might be considering,” FT said.
Rising global energy prices could make June’s trade deficit even more ¬alarming, the FT cited BGC Partners’ Özgür Altuğ as saying. |