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Dropping July prices fail to decrease annualized inflation
  01.09.2012


Consumer prices sailed southwards in July at an even quicker pace than the markets expected in Turkey, but this could not bring down an annualized inflation revisiting the 9 percent mark in the seventh month of the year because of the base effect.



 


The Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) announced these changes to consumer and producer prices on Friday. According to TurkStat's figures, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.23 percent compared to the previous month. Annualized consumer inflation, however, increased to 9.07 percent the same month, from 8.87 percent in June.

The consumer item that saw the biggest price hike was lemons, with a price increase of nearly 30 percent in July, followed by green beans with 23 percent and cucumbers with 17.5 percent for the month. The biggest price drop was seen in watermelons, with a 27 percent cut, followed by peaches with 12.5 percent and men's T-shirts with 9 percent.

The Central Bank of Turkey said in its third quarterly inflation report that it expects consumer inflation -- with a likelihood of 70 percent -- to be between 5.3 and 7.1 percent, with a midpoint of 6.2 percent, by the end of this year. Its year-end target, however, is 5 percent.

In June, the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) was minus 0.31 percent. Annualized producer inflation for the month was 6.13 percent, compared to 6.44 percent in June. Producers had to pay 1.23 percent more for charcoal and refined petroleum products, prices of which saw the biggest hike in June. Crude oil and natural gas extraction and the production and distribution of electricity and natural gas became 11.49 percent and 3.21 percent cheaper respectively in the seventh month of the year compared to June.

The central bank's preference for keeping interest rates unchanged a little longer due to the inflation risk before opting to cut them to buttress the economic growth of the country has drawn a reaction from Economy Minister Zafer Çağlayan. While in Tokyo for an official visit two weeks ago, Çağlayan said: “The central bank is too cautious now. It needs to take a step to lower the interest rate, and I hope it won't be behaving erroneously from now on.”

In response to this criticism, Central Bank of Turkey Governor Erdem Başçı said the monetary policy's strength must be maintained with diversified tools. “Developing markets have each developed measures in accordance with their own market dynamics, and we respond to potential problems with separate tools,” he said on July 26. Turkey's economic growth slowed down to 3.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, from 5.2 percent in the previous three months.
  
  

Source : todayszaman.com
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